Our condolences and solidarity with the people of Fort Myers and the southern part of West Coast of Florida. Hurricane Ian really devastated that area and also changed the timing on our release of our weekly Market forecast video.
So let's get let's talk about last week. The S&P 500 trended down closing at 3585.62, down 1.9 percent. We've seen crude oil take back up a little but not very much to close that 79.49 per barrel and that's up point four percent for the week so just a really minor uptick. In energy prices; energy prices have been trending down for the last four months now, so a possible uptick for a week is not really of a concern. Generally, nothing goes in a straight line either up or down so that's completely fine to be expected. Let's move on to the treasury yields; treasury yields began receding and trending down very slightly. It's been a parabolic rise leading the FED interest rate hikes so we've seen the two-year and ten year turn around a little bit. Let's talk about the two-year; the two-year has been leading the FED funds rate and that made a high of 4.31 percent, roughly, and now it's on its way down.
So that leads us into the Fed controlling monetary policy and controlling the rate hikes. They have been the driving factor of the pullbacks in the markets. The bear Market that we're seeing is because of the FED. At this point and obviously some geopolitical factors that put fire on the flames of monetary policy, that added more fire, so they have been very specific on what they're planning on doing. They're being data dependent and their target. For the fed's funds rate is between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent well where that two-year gap was four point three (one percent right in the middle of their target window) so what does that mean? That means at this point the data could be priced in. The data could be priced in so what does that mean for the equity markets and the bond markets? That means we could have a support area, and another thing that leads me to believe that we may have a support area right now is the S&P 500 came down to a major support area. That's a 200 weekly moving average we've seen that support with over 70 years worth of data. That's acted as a good support area. Now, sometimes it breaks the markets. It can break down below that. If we see a break of it, we tend to see a very long-term bear market so we'll have to watch that extremely closely. We're at a pretty close to a line in the sand.
We are also at a very good support area where we see an inflationary pressures trending down. We're seeing yields possibly topping out and the market is pricing in what the Fed plans on doing, so that's pretty optimistic news. But we don't know what may not be priced and what we need to keep monitoring is continued bad inflation data. If we see that continued, that means the target window that the Fed was shooting for may not come to fruition. It may have to be higher. If we see inflationary data higher, we see inflationary pressures. Some other geopolitical events that we're not prepared for are some wrenches that could be thrown into this to this scenario at this point so you know it's up in the up in the air with what data is going to lie. What we're seeing right now is deflationary pressures decline of the interest rates and a major support area of the S&P 500. Now we have some data that's that's going to be coming out this month more inflation data the non-farm payroll this Friday all going to be extremely important data because the Fed gave us their playbook, their target range, and they have specifically said they're going to be data dependent and they're going to have restrictive monetary policy and we already know that they're going to have restrictive monetary policy.