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CPI Numbers Well Above Expectations - Forecast 7/15/22

CPI Numbers Well Above Expectations - Forecast 7/15/22

July 15, 2022

We've seen a wild ride in the markets this week, the S&P 500 closed today at 3863.16, down 0.76%. The reason for the wild ride, the CPI numbers released on Wednesday up well above expectations 9.1 percent from a year earlier. My favorite indicator in the treasury yields and we usually see a translation from CPI to treasury yields. The 10-year treasury maintained below that 3 percent closing at 2.926 for the week. The thorn in our side, crude oil prices continued its downward path down nearly seven percent closing at 97.52 cents per barrel.

On to next week, what I was talking about last week the CPI the PPI numbers are extremely important yet possibly already priced in. Markets sold off into these numbers rallied following them even though the numbers were well above economist expectation telling us these numbers were already priced in. We've been seeing deflationary pressures across the board. Retail, food, travel, energy the list goes on so what does that mean going forward? The numbers are priced in, we're most likely going to see some kind of maybe consolidation because we've had a nice rally towards the end of this week maybe some sideways movement leading into the Fed meeting the following week or do we continue on this rally that will be the question going into next week? Right now we're buying but that Fed meeting will be very important they've already kind of gave us the expectation of a 0.75 percent raise in the interest rates so with that said that's priced in. Things are looking much more positive as we see these deflationary pressures. We'll be monitoring it closely for you.