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Core Inflation is NOW at a 40-year high! - Forecast 10/13/22

Core Inflation is NOW at a 40-year high! - Forecast 10/13/22

October 13, 2022

We’ve continued to see a sell-off in the market this week. It's been a disappointment in this inflation data. Inflation data coming in negative has been the the cause of the the market declines, the cause of equities, bonds. Housing we're seeing the declines in those markets because inflation data continues to remain high. With inflation data being high the FED throughout this whole year has been tightening monetary policy and reducing liquidity of the markets and that's been the pain for us investors.

Now, there is some silver lining. We got bad numbers today, we had core inflation and CPI numbers released and they were above expectations by a pretty significant margin, yet we've seen a rally in the markets. Now you hear over the news station that "hey this is a bear Market rally" which is definitely a possibility and If the Fed is going to tighten further a great more than the extent, they've already told us that they're going to tighten that is absolutely probably the case but here's the silver lining, the silver lining is inflation expectations continue to decline despite inflation data still remaining elevated. Still remaining a little bit higher than their expectations overall year over year inflation is coming down it's just slower than expected so in there that means the interest rates will probably remain elevated for for quite some time but the silver lining with inflation expectation being low is inflation expectation is a self-fulfilling prophecy and that's what we've seen this year before inflation became. High inflation expectations were high and then it fulfilled that destiny expectations being low inflation starts to come down and you know the data is higher right now but here's how the data the data is a conglomerate of a bunch of different prices and how the inflation began with certain segments being up certain segments being down and on the way down right now.

Inflation's high right now but what we're seeing is the the ones that led on the way up have started to come down. The lagging information has continued to rise so that's probably why the market recognized with inflation expectations being low. Inflation will continue to subside and that's going to be our positive for the markets. Not all markets are going to react the same. The real estate market is going to act different, the bond Market's going to act different, the equity markets are on their own different time frame and they're all going to respond to the FED type monetary policy differently. I mean you've seen the bond market and the stock market to take a really big decline this year and that priced it in pretty quickly so as we finally have a clear guidance on what's happening that's where the market can bottom. That's where we can see some upside.

There's still a lot of uncertainties, just because expectations are coming down doesn't mean the FED actually does does do what expectations are. Historically, they do what expectations are going to do but doesn't mean that they pause exactly how we are expecting and what they're saying they said they're going to be, data dependent, so what that means is there's a lot more data that's going to come this next month to bring us to that November 2nd Fed meeting where they're going to tell us what monetary policy is going to be like for that month and then we'll have one in December. So we need to be very open-minded and data dependent and flexible right now because there's immense opportunities in SEC the sectors in some sectors and there's also great risk not only inflation risk geopolitical as well but we're getting closer I think to the other side of this, potentially. There's still a lot of risk that we need to be aware of so when I say potentially you know that there can be a shoe that drops that we need to be able to reevaluate our opinion and not be so stringent on. This is exactly what's going to happen I know it and then stick with it so we're going to remain flexible we're going to remain data dependent we're going to be monitoring the situations.

We're going to be making appropriate investments as we go because we need to still continue to make investments in many sectors. There is great opportunity out there to start nibbling and taking some good shots so stick with us through this. We're going to come on the other side. Tune in next week on Friday for our market update video and forecast video.